In August, Blackhall & Pearl and our friends at the global advisory firm Mondiale Impact gathered leading Australian chairs and directors for an insightful dialogue around the paradigm shifts and strategic questions they are confronting in real time and what may come next amidst the massive disruptions currently underway. Our challenge was how they might find opportunity in the chaos, and we asked them to name the big bets their boards needed to make to ensure their companies and organisations will be thriving in three years.
Big Bets for Boards
The discussion surfaced five common themes despite the diverse sectors and settings represented.
- Climate change and the interrelated environmental impacts, nature risk and need for resilience
- AI as both an existential threat and opportunity
- Existing and growing inequity and its implications, including polarisation
- Geopolitical risk and opportunity
- Stress on current business models, including on the way boards work
We also noted several board practices that emerged from the conversation that underpin HOW boards are tackling these big bets. Leading boards do these three things well:
- Embrace the board’s role as a steward (Look to the horizon)
- Remain grounded in the basics around people and culture (Practice inclusion)
- Ensure this translates into better governance practice (Improve the ecosystem)
Look to the Horizon
Boards are, in effect, stewards for the long-term sustainability, resilience and flourishing of the organisation. There is power in focusing on longer term horizons. The focus goes beyond the tenure of individual directors and extends to how decisions would be made differently through a multi-generational lens, including those embedded in Indigenous cultures.
Paradigm shifts, in particular from climate, AI and geopolitics, mean that fundamental assumptions about business models, ways of working and stakeholder interaction need to be re-examined and tested. Little in this moment can be taken for granted. That means directors need to consider longer horizons while also navigating a lot of uncertainty.
The ‘speed and quantum’ of change that AI will bring was another significant focus, noting this shift will be more than a ‘tech threat’. It represents fundamental disruption, and even an existential threat to many companies and sectors. PwC’s Global Leadership survey of CEOs (2025) shows Australian CEOs may be overconfident about their business model, with 74% believing their current pathways will provide economic viability as compared to only 55% of CEOs globally. Boards have an active role to play in future proofing the vision and strategy and challenging unspoken and embedded assumptions. This is critical, especially at the intersection of strategic priorities and the big bets.
We have seen this strategic ‘check and challenge’ role given effect by:
- Stretching management’s thinking on both risks and opportunities with current strategic plans and the unspoken assumptions that underpin them
- Leveraging outside-in thinking to imagine possibilities and threats as part of board strategy days and risk deep dives
- Investing in pilot programs where AI, climate and geopolitics intersect with the organisation’s current business model
- Promoting the importance of both policy frameworks and private sector investment to enable opportunities to be realised and facilitate change where it’s needed
It is important to encourage and contribute to constructive policy frameworks and government engagement on critical issues, however boards can’t and don’t need to wait for this to be in place. Sometimes this requires engaging differently with stakeholder or developing new and different understanding of the contexts in which they’re operating, including the geopolitical environment.
Practice Inclusion
This is essentially about what ‘just transition’ mean in practice – ensuring people have the capability to transition and, where appropriate, lean into or drive the disruption that they’re facing.
Boards benefit from getting back to basics, beginning with a recentering on people as a core piece of the strategy. The ‘human element’ impacts how we serve existing customers, attract new customers, attract and integrate employees, create value for investors and evolve ways of working to embrace more diverse, creativity and flexible mindsets all round. Organisations benefit from a purpose driven orientation.
Boards can start by thinking about their own practices and the board’s culture. ‘Whose voices are being heard?’ is a helpful question for boards to ask. The voice of the satisfied customer and the voice of the critic both provide insights. Different perspectives help guard against insular thinking and can open new ways to engage as well as to deliver and distribute products and services customers need or want in ways that work best for them.
Boards also benefit from hearing perspectives from employees, particularly in areas where there is major disruption and potential with AI. This goes beyond efficiencies and right sizing to open up dialogue about investments in growth and innovation and reskilling and upskilling.
Improve the (Governance) Ecosystem
Governance practices need to evolve with the times. This includes getting clear about the implications of big bets for decision-making. The rapid changes in social, political and environmental contexts raise the urgency and the stakes to ensure governance is future focused and fit for purpose. There is a need to be explicit about whether assumptions hold, about questions and choices, and about the trade-offs, some of which happen at a systems level, rather than an organisational one (e.g., investing in AI and the energy needs of data centres). The result is that boards need more time for strategic debate and discussion and better tools to stretch directors’ thinking.
In our dialogue, there also were reflections on the impact – and impost – of compliance and what gets incentivised, as well as limitations on the board’s ways of working and making decisions.
Taken together, this highlights need for an approach beyond direct investments in organisational strategy and execution and for directors to be students of, and contributors to the wider governance landscape. Boards have a role to play in ensuring the ecosystems in which their organisations operate are functioning well, especially as the big bets involve issues that extend beyond any one enterprise or sector.
Additional Reading
There are big bets to be made by boards in 2026 and beyond, which invites both opportunity and risk. As you think about your own year to come, our friends at Mondiale Impact are sharing their stellar playbook to help boards navigate turbulent times – click here to read more.
